XXX Berlin Global Forum on China
Above the rooftops of Berlin, the members of Global Bridges came together at the invitation of its long-time member, Dr. Kurt Schwarz, to discuss the prospects of China. The evening also provided the opportunity to reflect upon Global Bridges’ XIII Study Trip to China this October.
Two designated experts on China shared their expertise: Dr. Volker Stanzel, former German Ambassador to China who recently returned from an extensive professorship in the People’s Republic, reported that the 19. National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly demonstrated that the Communist Party has effectively consolidated its power. Xi Jinping is undoubtedly the most powerful president since Mao Zedong. He has succeeded at significantly modernizing his country’s armed forces and at heightening its influence. Due to his anti-corruption campaign, both his authority within the party as well as his popularity among the Chinese people has risen dramatically. The question of whether or not Xi Jinping will be equally successful at controlling the economy was left unanswered. China’s growth has risen to a new level that, although no longer at the two-digit growth rate from the past year, still remains far above the international average. However, if this growth were somehow to be stifled, or if it were to even come to an economic crisis in the “Reich der Mitte,” then this would have devastating consequences for the global community, especially Germany.
Tim Wenniges, head of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung office in Shanghai, reported on the increasingly self-assured behavior of Chinese businesses. “One should not allow himself to be deceived by false affection,” as some German companies naively continue to be. While the Chinese market still possesses great opportunities with many “win-win scenarios,” the interests and the professionalism of Chinese business partners should not be underestimated. In this sense, the new US administration under president Trump has put itself in an advantageous negotiating position through its aggressive behavior.
The assessment of China’s new “Belt and Road” Silk Road project varied during the discussion. The intent to invest export surpluses in infrastructure, thereby strengthening China’s provinces, is correct. Whether this will be implemented through an accumulation of more or less successful individual projects is still yet to be seen.